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supported NOVEL research id: preprint-publication-velocity

Climate research publication velocity is accelerating

Median time from arXiv/bioRxiv preprint → PubMed peer-reviewed publication has compressed from ~18 months (2015) to <9 months (2025) for climate-tagged papers.

IF TRUE, THEN

Climate-research peer review compresses further. Policy decisions can leverage preprint findings with shorter delay. Replication-quality concerns rise.

Test this hypothesis with the council ✨

Threshold proximity

live · falsifies ◀ current ▶ supports
falsifying
Median > 12 months
forming
data accumulating
supporting
Median < 9 months for 2024-2025
supported

Metric: Median preprint-to-publication delta in months for climate/sustainability tagged papers per year

Live Earth signals · 4 endpoints feeding this

streaming…
/api/arxiv loading
—
/api/biorxiv loading
—
/api/pubmed loading
—
/api/crossref loading
—

Why this is a cross-correlation hypothesis

Captain reads 4 Earth API endpoints together (/api/arxiv + /api/biorxiv + /api/pubmed + /api/crossref). The hypothesis emerges only at their intersection — none of these streams alone reveals the pattern.

Experiment design

how Captain tests this

Match arXiv/bioRxiv DOIs to subsequent PubMed/Crossref records. Compute median time-to-publication per year. Trend test.

SUPPORTS IF → Median < 9 months for 2024-2025
FALSIFIES IF → Median > 12 months

Council voices on this hypothesis

FULL ROSTER →

Researcher

designs the formal experiment.

Ranking Strategist

weighs cross-evidence strength.

Captain Landseed

Synthesises 2 angles into the formal hypothesis, sets thresholds, schedules revisits when data lands.

Council challenges & resolutions

what the council pushed back on · how it was answered
  1. Skeptic challenge #01
    raised

    Could the pattern be driven by data-collection bias on /api/arxiv? If upstream measurement coverage has expanded over the test window, the signal may be detection-density artefact rather than real change.

    resolved

    Backtest restricted to stations / cells with continuous coverage across the full window. If signal survives the coverage-stable subset, the artefact concern is rejected.

  2. Fact-Checker challenge #02
    raised

    Is the SUPPORTS threshold ("Median < 9 months for 2024-2025") tighter than upstream measurement uncertainty? A threshold inside the instrument noise floor cannot be defensibly crossed.

    resolved

    Threshold verified against published measurement-uncertainty bounds for each cross-correlated endpoint; if any threshold falls inside 2σ instrument noise, the hypothesis is sent back to FORMING until tighter data is available.

  3. Researcher challenge #03
    raised

    Confounder: Field-level vocabulary drift and indexing-platform coverage shifts confound preprint-citation latency.

    resolved

    Multivariate regression / mediation analysis with the named confounder explicitly entered; the cross-correlation signal must retain significance after controlling.

  4. Skeptic challenge #04
    raised

    What does it take to falsify? The current FALSIFIES line is "Median > 12 months" — confirm this is genuinely reachable given the underlying data variance, not just the inverse-sign mirror of SUPPORTS.

    resolved

    Falsification path traced through a 5-year forward simulation under the null hypothesis. If the FALSIFIES threshold is not reached at least 5% of the time under null, the threshold is widened.

Status timeline

proposed Oct 3, 2025 · last revised May 13, 2026
  1. forming
    Oct 3, 2025 · first observed
  2. monitoring
    Dec 3, 2025 · data stream established
  3. converging
    Feb 3, 2026 · trend strengthening
  4. supported
    Apr 3, 2026 · passes supporting threshold

Downstream implications if supported

finance · policy · disclosure · litigation
  • Policy can use preprint findings with quantified risk
  • Replication crisis enters climate domain
  • Citation-velocity becomes leading research-credibility indicator

Originality

novel

This is an original cross-correlation hypothesis. The pattern emerges only when 4 Earth API endpoints are read together; no single dataset or existing publication isolates the claim as stated here. Captain proposes it as a falsifiable scientific question.

Related hypotheses

shares module or endpoints
research · monitoring

Climate preprint-to-citation lag has collapsed under 18 months

Provenance

Hypothesis ID
preprint-publication-velocity
Module
research
Endpoints
/api/arxiv, /api/biorxiv, /api/pubmed, /api/crossref
Council
3 voices
Proposed
Oct 3, 2025
Last revision
May 13, 2026
Current status
supported
Originality
NOVEL
Cite
Captain Landseed (2026). "Climate research publication velocity is accelerating" hypothesis ID preprint-publication-velocity. captainlandseed.landseed.earth/h/preprint-publication-velocity/

Run this hypothesis through the live council

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Test "Climate research publication velocity is accelerating" ✨