Revised drafts ready (27).
Auto-drafted from the council's cited findings. Not auto-merged — each one waits here for a human to accept it.
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draft ready Jun 4, 2026 · 9 cited findings Methane is breaking away from CO₂
Reframed claim from 'durable dominance' to 'episodic, structurally increasing decoupling'; raised SUPPORTS threshold from >1.4 to >1.5 (two consecutive 5-year windows) and lowered FALSIFIES threshold from <0.9 to <0.85 to remain falsifiable given the 0.86–1.07 real-world range...
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draft ready Jun 4, 2026 · 9 cited findings The natural sinks are no longer helping
Replaced the exclusive 'fully attributable to fossil emissions' attribution with a multi-factor structural framing (fossil emissions + long-term sink degradation); added a concurrent land-sink flux anomaly condition (±0.5 GtC/yr of 2010–2020 mean) to the metric and both thresh...
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draft ready Jun 3, 2026 · 9 cited findings The loudest climate pledges deliver the least
Revised metric adds three structural control variables (institutional quality, fossil-fuel revenue share, GDP per capita) and recalibrates baseline to UNFCCC FCCC/PA/CMA/2025/8 / UNEP 2025 post-methodology-update vintages; lowered SUPPORTS threshold from ρ < −0.25 to partial ρ...
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draft ready Jun 3, 2026 · 9 cited findings CCS sites tremble before they leak
Narrowed applicability from all CCS sites to geomechanically critical sites (mapped faults or stress ratio criterion); widened lag window from 6–18 to 6–24 months to reflect MIT 2024 uncertainty quantification; reduced supporting threshold from ≥5 sites to ≥3 qualifying sites;...
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draft ready Jun 3, 2026 · 7 cited findings Climate science cites at internet speed now
SUPPORTS threshold loosened from < 18 months to < 24 months and anchored to a baseline-relative minimum detectable difference of > 6 months (accounting for ±6-month instrument uncertainty); FALSIFIES threshold tightened from > 30 months to > 36 months with an added null-hypoth...
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draft ready Jun 3, 2026 · 9 cited findings Twitter beats NOAA to the heat dome
Replaced the 3–7 day predictive-lead framing with a concurrent/near-real-time complementary-detection framing; respecified the comparator instrument from 'any formal report' to exclusively the NWS ≤48 hr short-fuse Watch/Warning product (excluding the 3–7 day HeatRisk forecast...
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draft ready Jun 3, 2026 · 9 cited findings Atmospheric rivers are breaking the rulebook
Restricted the claim to convective-classified AR precipitation (per Da Silva & Haerter 2025 rain-type mechanism); added rain-type stratification and circulation-regime conditioning to the metric with explicit 90% CI reporting (per Andria et al. 2025 uncertainty budget); raised...
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draft ready Jun 3, 2026 · 9 cited findings Antarctica is overshooting the projections
Corrected the Antarctic-specific contribution thresholds from the physically impossible 3.0–5.0 mm/yr range (which conflated total GMSL with the Antarctic-only signal) to 0.45–0.65 mm/yr, calibrated against IMBIE/ESA/NASA 2024–2026 observed baseline of ~0.23–0.47 mm/yr and AR6...
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draft ready Jun 3, 2026 · 9 cited findings Drought is breaking hydropower's promise
Revised causal chain from drought→fossil-backstop to drought→compensatory-capacity-of-any-type (fossil, renewable, or storage); pinned the shortfall denominator to 2020 installed capacity to prevent IHA/IEA pipeline-addition drift; tightened FALSIFIES floor to 13% (≤EIA instru...
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draft ready Jun 3, 2026 · 9 cited findings Fish are heading to the poles, fast
Raised SUPPORTS centroid-shift threshold from >50 to >55 km/decade with a bootstrapped CI floor (>42 km/decade after 10–28% methodological-variance correction per Global Change Biology 2023) to address noise non-falsifiability; restricted metric from GBIF occurrence records to...
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draft ready Jun 3, 2026 · 9 cited findings Clean energy is saving lives in real time
Extended observational window from 24 months to 36–60 months; shifted unit of analysis from single region to contiguous multi-region unit (≥3 states/NUTS-2) to account for 41–53% cross-boundary PM2.5 mortality leakage; recalibrated SUPPORTS threshold from ≥0.3 to lower-bound-o...
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draft ready Jun 3, 2026 · 9 cited findings Drought comes before the war
Conditioned claim and metric on governance quality (WB GEI ≤ 40th percentile) and absence of pre-existing conflict trap per Skeptic reanalysis findings; replaced single-index drought proxy with multi-index CDI (CHIRPS + MODIS-NDVI + ERA-5) per Fact-Checker instrument-uncertain...
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draft ready Jun 3, 2026 · 9 cited findings Renewables visibly clean the air
SUPPORTS threshold loosened from β < −0.8 to β ≤ −0.25 (baseline-normalised, replicated across ≥ 2 panels) to align with pooled meta-analytic β of −0.31 (Nature 2024-07); FALSIFIES threshold tightened from |β| < 0.2 to |β| < 0.10 to remain robustly enterable under the null giv...
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draft ready Jun 3, 2026 · 9 cited findings Climate is moving people faster than the UN expected
Revised SUPPORTS threshold from '>2× AR6 central estimate' to '>1.5× with 90% CI lower bound >1.0×' to reflect the unfalsifiability gap identified by Hausfather 2025 and IGCC 2023; restructured metric to condition on income-quartile and add trade-chain adjustment (addressing t...
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draft ready Jun 3, 2026 · 9 cited findings The biggest waves are getting bigger fastest
Restricted the claim to physically identified amplifying basins (Eastern/Western Pacific, Southern Ocean) and excluded North Atlantic and Bay of Bengal; shifted metric to bias-corrected, hindcast-anchored, basin- and season-stratified trend ratios with propagated uncertainty b...
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draft ready Jun 3, 2026 · 9 cited findings Rivers warn the coast months ahead
Restricted claim and SUPPORTS threshold from network-wide (≥60% of all USGS–NOAA pairs) to estuary-proximate station class only (≥55% of N≥20 Class A pairs); shortened lag window from 60–180 days to 15–120 days; lowered |r| SUPPORTS threshold from >0.4 to >0.35 for Class A wit...
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draft ready Jun 3, 2026 · 9 cited findings Natural variability can no longer explain the heat
SUPPORTS threshold lowered from > 0.95 to > 0.90 (lower CI > 0.85) and made contingent on dual-pipeline replication and no single-endpoint artefact, directly addressing Sherman et al. 2025 spurious-inflation finding and arXiv 2208.02919 covariance-uncertainty gap; FALSIFIES th...
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draft ready Jun 3, 2026 · 9 cited findings Regulatory deadlines shake carbon prices
Narrowed the deadline-density metric to ETS-proximate deadlines only (removing SEC/CSRD as primary density inputs given SEC abeyance and CSRD Omnibus de-scoping); replaced the absolute 20% price-move criterion with a 1.5× trailing-12-month-average normalised move to remain fal...
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draft ready Jun 3, 2026 · 9 cited findings Earth's alarm bells are ringing in chorus
Revised to: (a) add a node-homogeneity variance screen (1.5× network-median) per Masuda et al. 2024 to exclude topology-driven false composites; (b) recalibrate both CEMS and GDACS thresholds against post-2025 distributions, applying a documented +30% GRT deflation correction ...
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draft ready Jun 3, 2026 · 9 cited findings Climate-tech patents aren't cutting emissions
Extended observation window from 24 to 36 months to accommodate diffusion-lag evidence (TSE/ECGI 2025); excluded Y02D ICT-only subclass and added normalisation for classification-volume inflation (Barbieri et al. 2025); added capex-crowding-out control variable (MDPI Sustainab...
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draft ready Jun 3, 2026 · 9 cited findings The public catches up to disasters a week late
Shortened and stratified the central lag estimate (1–5 days for acute/Class A vs. 3–9 days for slower/Class B events), lowered the SUPPORTS coverage threshold from ≥70% to ≥60% to accommodate instrument uncertainty, added a ±1–3 day-aware falsification floor tied to the Reddit...
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draft ready Jun 3, 2026 · 9 cited findings The boreal fire belt is marching north
SUPPORTS threshold lowered from >0.3°/yr to >0.05°/yr and window extended from 24 to 36 months; metric restructured from a single NH population-weighted fire-count centroid to an FRP-weighted daytime-only centroid disaggregated across 3 climate-sensitive pyroregions with expli...
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draft ready Jun 3, 2026 · 9 cited findings Carbon markets are pricing politics, not physics
Replaced the single-cause 'political ceiling on atmospheric reality' framing with a multi-mechanism causal structure (oversupply + political-economy constraints); tightened SUPPORTS threshold from 2 to 4 consecutive quarters and added an MSR-adjusted numerator to control for p...
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draft ready Jun 3, 2026 · 9 cited findings Earthquakes and volcanoes are talking to each other
Replaced volcanic SO₂ flux with background seismicity-rate normalisation as the second arm of the joint signal (per 2025 Yunnan study); extended b-value rolling window from 90 to 180 days and mandated b-Positive estimator with Mc screening and n ≥ 150 event floor (per GJI 2024...
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draft ready Jun 3, 2026 · 9 cited findings Tropical forests are emitting more than they absorb
Rescoped claim from 'all three major tropical biomes' to 'degraded/deforested sub-regions of Amazon, SEAsia, and El Niño-affected central Africa' with explicit Congo Basin intact-forest exclusion; raised consecutive-day SUPPORTS threshold from 30 to 45 days and anchored it to ...
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draft ready Jun 3, 2026 · 9 cited findings Birdwatchers see extinctions before the IUCN does
Narrowed scope to well-sampled taxa (≥50 research-grade records/decade, coordinate-obscured records excluded) to reflect taxon-dependency finding; widened the falsification threshold from <2 years to <3 years (with CI upper bound <4 years) and raised the lag-reversal falsifica...
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draft ready Jun 3, 2026 · 9 cited findings Coral bleaching is the ocean's check-engine light
Replaced the fixed global '>25% of stations, SST > +1°C' SUPPORTS threshold with a per-basin r² ≥ 0.25 cross-correlation criterion using v3.1-calibrated DHW and a ceiling-saturation exclusion window; shifted the primary metric from alert-count × SST anomaly to DHW accumulation...