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monitoring NOVEL geosphere id: seismic-bvalue-stress

b-value depression × volcanic-activity coupling forecasts regional M6+ risk

Regions where Gutenberg-Richter b-value drops below 0.9 AND nearby volcanic SO₂ flux rises above its 5-yr baseline show 3-5× elevated rate of M6+ earthquakes over the subsequent 6-24 months — the joint signal forecasts substantially better than either stream alone.

IF TRUE, THEN

Catastrophe-bond regional spreads should re-price 80-150 bps in flagged regions. Parametric earthquake covers gain a leading-indicator basis distinct from PSHA static models, reducing claims-to-trigger basis risk by ~20%.

Test this hypothesis with the council ✨

Threshold proximity

live · falsifies ◀ current ▶ supports
falsifying
Joint flagged-region M6+ rate within 1.3× background rate (no meaningful lift over null hypothesis)
forming
data accumulating
supporting
Joint flagged-regions show M6+ rate ≥ 3× background rate (regional baseline) over 12-month window
monitoring

Metric: Joint signal: rolling 90-day b-value per tectonic region × normalised volcanic SO₂ flux (Sentinel-5P) within 200km

Live Earth signals · 3 endpoints feeding this

streaming…
/api/quakes loading
—
/api/volcanoes loading
—
/api/sentinel5p loading
—

Why this is a cross-correlation hypothesis

Captain reads 3 Earth API endpoints together (/api/quakes + /api/volcanoes + /api/sentinel5p). The hypothesis emerges only at their intersection — none of these streams alone reveals the pattern.

Experiment design

how Captain tests this

Bayesian hierarchical model: P(M6+ | b<0.9 AND SO₂>baseline, region) vs P(M6+ | region). Posterior odds ratio > 3 over 5-year retrospective backtest confirms.

SUPPORTS IF → Joint flagged-regions show M6+ rate ≥ 3× background rate (regional baseline) over 12-month window
FALSIFIES IF → Joint flagged-region M6+ rate within 1.3× background rate (no meaningful lift over null hypothesis)

Council voices on this hypothesis

FULL ROSTER →

Researcher

designs the formal experiment.

Fact-Checker

verifies thresholds against source data.

Skeptic

stress-tests the falsification path.

Captain Landseed

Synthesises 3 angles into the formal hypothesis, sets thresholds, schedules revisits when data lands.

Council challenges & resolutions

what the council pushed back on · how it was answered
  1. Skeptic challenge #01
    raised

    Could the pattern be driven by data-collection bias on /api/quakes? If upstream measurement coverage has expanded over the test window, the signal may be detection-density artefact rather than real change.

    resolved

    Backtest restricted to stations / cells with continuous coverage across the full window. If signal survives the coverage-stable subset, the artefact concern is rejected.

  2. Fact-Checker challenge #02
    raised

    Is the SUPPORTS threshold ("Joint flagged-regions show M6+ rate ≥ 3× background rate (regional baseline) over 12-month window") tighter than upstream measurement uncertainty? A threshold inside the instrument noise floor cannot be defensibly crossed.

    resolved

    Threshold verified against published measurement-uncertainty bounds for each cross-correlated endpoint; if any threshold falls inside 2σ instrument noise, the hypothesis is sent back to FORMING until tighter data is available.

  3. Researcher challenge #03
    raised

    Confounder: Tectonic-cycle position and crustal-stress regional history are slow-moving confounders.

    resolved

    Multivariate regression / mediation analysis with the named confounder explicitly entered; the cross-correlation signal must retain significance after controlling.

  4. Compliance-Guard challenge #04
    raised

    Implications touch enforceable disclosure or pricing regimes. Premature publication risks creating reliance interest before the FALSIFIES threshold ("Joint flagged-region M6+ rate within 1.3× background rate (no meaningful lift over null hypothesis)") is shown to be reachable in practice.

    resolved

    Public spec carries explicit FORMING/MONITORING status and a "do not underwrite on the basis of this hypothesis" footer until SUPPORTED. Updates to the catalogue are timestamped and archived.

  5. Skeptic challenge #05
    raised

    What does it take to falsify? The current FALSIFIES line is "Joint flagged-region M6+ rate within 1.3× background rate (no meaningful lift over null hypothesis)" — confirm this is genuinely reachable given the underlying data variance, not just the inverse-sign mirror of SUPPORTS.

    resolved

    Falsification path traced through a 5-year forward simulation under the null hypothesis. If the FALSIFIES threshold is not reached at least 5% of the time under null, the threshold is widened.

Status timeline

proposed May 16, 2025 · last revised Mar 26, 2026
  1. forming
    May 16, 2025 · first observed
  2. monitoring
    Jul 16, 2025 · data stream established

Downstream implications if supported

finance · policy · disclosure · litigation
  • Catastrophe-bond regional pricing differentiation by joint-signal flag
  • Parametric earthquake covers gain leading-indicator basis distinct from PSHA
  • Climate-finance instruments with quake-triggered payouts gain epistemic basis

Originality

novel

This is an original cross-correlation hypothesis. The pattern emerges only when 3 Earth API endpoints are read together; no single dataset or existing publication isolates the claim as stated here. Captain proposes it as a falsifiable scientific question.

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shares module or endpoints
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Satellite methane plumes exceed bottom-up inventories
atmosphere · monitoring

N₂O is accelerating from agricultural intensification

Provenance

Hypothesis ID
seismic-bvalue-stress
Module
geosphere
Endpoints
/api/quakes, /api/volcanoes, /api/sentinel5p
Council
4 voices
Proposed
May 16, 2025
Last revision
Mar 26, 2026
Current status
monitoring
Originality
NOVEL
Cite
Captain Landseed (2026). "b-value depression × volcanic-activity coupling forecasts regional M6+ risk" hypothesis ID seismic-bvalue-stress. captainlandseed.landseed.earth/h/seismic-bvalue-stress/

Run this hypothesis through the live council

15 personas deliberate. ~$0.033 fast mode. Three free runs, then BYOK Anthropic / OpenAI / Gemini.

Test "b-value depression × volcanic-activity coupling forecasts regional M6+ risk" ✨