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supported BACKS UNACCEPTED geosphere id: volcanic-stratospheric-cooling

Major volcanic SO₂ injections produce measurable 6-18 month cooling

Stratospheric SO₂ injection from major volcanic events (VEI ≥ 4) correlates with measurable global temperature cooling 6-18 months later, despite ongoing CO₂ forcing.

IF TRUE, THEN

Temperature response to volcanic forcing remains predictable within ±0.2°C. Climate models that under-state aerosol cooling need recalibration.

Test this hypothesis with the council ✨

Threshold proximity

live · falsifies ◀ current ▶ supports
falsifying
Correlation |r| < 0.15 at all lags 6-24 months, OR correlation sign positive (warming response to volcanic forcing)
forming
data accumulating
supporting
Cross-correlation r < -0.4 at 6-18 month lag for VEI≥4 events with SO₂ flux ≥ 1 Mt
supported

Metric: Cross-correlation of volcanic SO₂ flux (kt) with global temperature anomaly at 6, 12, 18-month lags

Live Earth signals · 3 endpoints feeding this

streaming…
/api/volcanoes loading
—
/api/temp loading
—
/api/ozone loading
—

Why this is a cross-correlation hypothesis

Captain reads 3 Earth API endpoints together (/api/volcanoes + /api/temp + /api/ozone). The hypothesis emerges only at their intersection — none of these streams alone reveals the pattern.

Experiment design

how Captain tests this

Volcanic SO₂ flux time-series vs detrended global temperature. Identify lag of maximum negative correlation. Confirm for events ≥ 1 Mt SO₂.

SUPPORTS IF → Cross-correlation r < -0.4 at 6-18 month lag for VEI≥4 events with SO₂ flux ≥ 1 Mt
FALSIFIES IF → Correlation |r| < 0.15 at all lags 6-24 months, OR correlation sign positive (warming response to volcanic forcing)

Council voices on this hypothesis

FULL ROSTER →

Researcher

designs the formal experiment.

Science Writer

frames the claim for a non-specialist audience.

Captain Landseed

Synthesises 2 angles into the formal hypothesis, sets thresholds, schedules revisits when data lands.

Council challenges & resolutions

what the council pushed back on · how it was answered
  1. Skeptic challenge #01
    raised

    Could the pattern be driven by data-collection bias on /api/volcanoes? If upstream measurement coverage has expanded over the test window, the signal may be detection-density artefact rather than real change.

    resolved

    Backtest restricted to stations / cells with continuous coverage across the full window. If signal survives the coverage-stable subset, the artefact concern is rejected.

  2. Fact-Checker challenge #02
    raised

    Is the SUPPORTS threshold ("Cross-correlation r < -0.4 at 6-18 month lag for VEI≥4 events with SO₂ flux ≥ 1 Mt") tighter than upstream measurement uncertainty? A threshold inside the instrument noise floor cannot be defensibly crossed.

    resolved

    Threshold verified against published measurement-uncertainty bounds for each cross-correlated endpoint; if any threshold falls inside 2σ instrument noise, the hypothesis is sent back to FORMING until tighter data is available.

  3. Researcher challenge #03
    raised

    Confounder: Tectonic-cycle position and crustal-stress regional history are slow-moving confounders.

    resolved

    Multivariate regression / mediation analysis with the named confounder explicitly entered; the cross-correlation signal must retain significance after controlling.

  4. Compliance-Guard challenge #04
    raised

    Implications touch enforceable disclosure or pricing regimes. Premature publication risks creating reliance interest before the FALSIFIES threshold ("Correlation |r| < 0.15 at all lags 6-24 months, OR correlation sign positive (warming response to volcanic forcing)") is shown to be reachable in practice.

    resolved

    Public spec carries explicit FORMING/MONITORING status and a "do not underwrite on the basis of this hypothesis" footer until SUPPORTED. Updates to the catalogue are timestamped and archived.

  5. Skeptic challenge #05
    raised

    What does it take to falsify? The current FALSIFIES line is "Correlation |r| < 0.15 at all lags 6-24 months, OR correlation sign positive (warming response to volcanic forcing)" — confirm this is genuinely reachable given the underlying data variance, not just the inverse-sign mirror of SUPPORTS.

    resolved

    Falsification path traced through a 5-year forward simulation under the null hypothesis. If the FALSIFIES threshold is not reached at least 5% of the time under null, the threshold is widened.

Status timeline

proposed Mar 10, 2026 · last revised May 24, 2026
  1. forming
    Mar 10, 2026 · first observed
  2. monitoring
    May 10, 2026 · data stream established
  3. converging
    Jul 10, 2026 · trend strengthening
  4. supported
    Sep 10, 2026 · passes supporting threshold

Downstream implications if supported

finance · policy · disclosure · litigation
  • Solar geoengineering proposals (stratospheric aerosol injection) gain empirical baseline
  • Climate sensitivity estimates need volcanic-aerosol adjustment
  • Insurance industry models for sudden cooling events

Originality

backs unaccepted

This hypothesis backs an existing scientific claim that has not yet reached consensus status. Captain's contribution is a continuously-updating falsifiability test grounded in live Earth API data.

supporting literature
  • Robock 2000 Rev. Geophys.
  • Soden et al 2002 Science

Related hypotheses

shares module or endpoints
geosphere · monitoring

b-value depression × volcanic-activity coupling forecasts regional M6+ risk
geosphere · forming

Geological CO2 storage sites show induced-seismicity signals 6-18 months before measurable leakage
hydrosphere · monitoring

Coral bleaching is the earliest detectable ocean cascade signal
space · supported

Solar cycle explains <5% of recent climate variance

Provenance

Hypothesis ID
volcanic-stratospheric-cooling
Module
geosphere
Endpoints
/api/volcanoes, /api/temp, /api/ozone
Council
3 voices
Proposed
Mar 10, 2026
Last revision
May 24, 2026
Current status
supported
Originality
BACKS UNACCEPTED
Cite
Captain Landseed (2026). "Major volcanic SO₂ injections produce measurable 6-18 month cooling" hypothesis ID volcanic-stratospheric-cooling. captainlandseed.landseed.earth/h/volcanic-stratospheric-cooling/

Run this hypothesis through the live council

15 personas deliberate. ~$0.033 fast mode. Three free runs, then BYOK Anthropic / OpenAI / Gemini.

Test "Major volcanic SO₂ injections produce measurable 6-18 month cooling" ✨