⚠ Revision suggested (27).
Curated catalogue says one thing. Live council, reading the last 18 months of published evidence, says another.
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curated: converging→ live:revision neededJun 4, 2026 · 9 findingsMethane is breaking away from CO₂
The council collectively finds the hypothesis requires substantial revision: the Fact-Checker shows the GWP-adjusted ratio has fallen to ~0.86–1.07 using 2024 data (at or below the FALSIFIES threshold of 0.9), driven partly by elevated CO₂ growth of 3.4–3.73 ppm/yr, while the Skeptic highlights a June 2025 PNAS paper directly contesting the isotopic attri...
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curated: supported→ live:revision neededJun 4, 2026 · 9 findingsThe natural sinks are no longer helping
All three council voices agree that the hypothesis's core attribution claim — that ENSO-neutral CO₂ growth above 3.0 ppm/yr is *fully* attributable to fossil emissions — is factually overstated; the GCP's low-latency carbon budget (2024/2025) and the 'weak land carbon sink hypothesis' (2025-09) demonstrate that a structurally declining biospheric sink is ...
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curated: forming→ live:revision neededJun 3, 2026 · 9 findingsBirdwatchers see extinctions before the IUCN does
The council collectively found that while the directional core of the hypothesis has some empirical support (a ~6–7 year median lead time for well-sampled taxa per the 2024 opportunistic citizen science study), two structural problems require substantial revision: the IUCN's own 2024 guidelines contain no formal mechanism for citizen-science data to trigg...
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curated: converging→ live:revision neededJun 3, 2026 · 9 findingsTropical forests are emitting more than they absorb
All three council voices independently concluded the hypothesis requires revision: the Congo Basin remains a net sink (strengthened by wetland expansion per the February 2026 finding), the GFW/IPCC Table 4.9 removal-factor corrections (April 2026) render the 30-consecutive-day threshold unverifiable under current uncertainty budgets, and pan-tropical aggr...
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curated: monitoring→ live:revision neededJun 3, 2026 · 9 findingsCoral bleaching is the ocean's check-engine light
All three council voices independently returned revision_needed: the Fact-Checker identified that the NOAA CRW v3.1 methodology transition, the 2023–2025 global bleaching event pushing alert rates to ~84% of reef area (NOAA CRW Global Bleaching Status Update, Sep 2025), and the March 2025 Virtual Station expansion collectively invalidate the fixed '>25% o...
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curated: converging→ live:revision neededJun 3, 2026 · 9 findingsThe boreal fire belt is marching north
The council collectively finds the hypothesis directionally plausible but quantitatively unsupported: Allen et al. 2024 (Science Advances) and PNAS 2025 show NH boreal area-burned trends are statistically nonsignificant or regionally decreasing, directly undermining the >0.3°/yr centroid-drift threshold, while a newly documented VIIRS nighttime low-confid...
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curated: monitoring→ live:revision neededJun 3, 2026 · 9 findingsEarthquakes and volcanoes are talking to each other
The council unanimously finds the hypothesis requires substantial revision: the b-value arm of the joint signal operates below measurement resolution on rolling 90-day windows (GJI 2024, 'Can we obtain reliable seismic b-values for real-time catalogues?'), the claimed volcanic SO₂ flux coupling lacks any peer-reviewed validation as a regional M6+ precurso...
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curated: monitoring→ live:revision neededJun 3, 2026 · 9 findingsCarbon markets are pricing politics, not physics
The council collectively finds that the hypothesis's core 36-month doubling prediction is directly falsified by EU ETS forward markets signalling only a ~€4 rise by 2027 (EU ETS Price Outlook, Nov 2025) and near-flat projections through 2027 confirmed by the European Commission's own forecast (Trends in Carbon Intensity and the Macroeconomic Role of the E...
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curated: forming→ live:revision neededJun 3, 2026 · 9 findingsClimate-tech patents aren't cutting emissions
The council collectively finds the hypothesis requires substantial revision: the Skeptic's 2025 firm-level evidence shows that patent-emissions misalignment is better explained by technology diffusion lags and regulatory crowding-out than by greenwashing, making the binary interpretation insufficiently falsifiable; the Fact-Checker notes that EPO Y02/Y04S...
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curated: monitoring→ live:revision neededJun 3, 2026 · 9 findingsEarth's alarm bells are ringing in chorus
The council collectively finds that the hypothesis requires structural revision before any supports/falsifies determination is meaningful: the Fact-Checker identified that the 2025 EFAS v5.5 AI-model replacement and GRT methodology expansion (~30% GDACS count inflation) render both cross-correlation legs discontinuous with the 2014–2023 baseline, invalida...
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curated: forming→ live:revision neededJun 3, 2026 · 9 findingsThe public catches up to disasters a week late
The council collectively finds the hypothesis unsupported as stated: empirical studies including 'Mapping the pulse of environmental discourse: fifteen years of Reddit and Google Trends' (2026) and 'Tales of the 2025 Los Angeles Fire' (2025) show Reddit disaster and climate discourse peaks within 2–5 days or contemporaneously with events, not after the 5–...
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curated: forming→ live:revision neededJun 3, 2026 · 9 findingsRegulatory deadlines shake carbon prices
The council collectively found that both the causal logic and empirical thresholds of this hypothesis require substantial revision: macro-energy fundamentals rather than deadline clustering drive EU ETS volatility (per the 2024 SSRN Carbon Markets and Volatility working paper), while the CBAM postponement to September 2027 and the CSRD Omnibus de-scoping ...
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curated: supported→ live:revision neededJun 3, 2026 · 9 findingsNatural variability can no longer explain the heat
The council collectively finds that the hypothesis's core metric and downstream predictions are not empirically supportable: arxiv 2506.13994 (May 2025) explicitly identifies unresolved model uncertainties and natural-variability modeling gaps that prevent convergence on a near-unity attribution ratio, while Sherman et al. (2025) demonstrates that standar...
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curated: forming→ live:weakensJun 3, 2026 · 9 findingsRivers warn the coast months ahead
The council collectively found that river–tide coupling is real but spatially limited to estuaries and near-field gauges, with rapid signal attenuation toward open-coast stations, making the ≥60% paired-station threshold at |r|>0.4 over 60–180 day lags implausible at network scale; the Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta (2023-12) and Pearl River Estuary (2023-0...
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curated: monitoring→ live:revision neededJun 3, 2026 · 9 findingsRenewables visibly clean the air
The council collectively finds that the hypothesis requires substantial revision: the empirical β coefficient is far weaker than the SUPPORTS threshold (pooled β ≈ −0.3 vs. required −0.8, per the 2024 meta-analysis and US county-level data showing emissions regulations as the primary driver), the SUPPORTS/FALSIFIES thresholds are miscalibrated against shi...
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curated: monitoring→ live:revision neededJun 3, 2026 · 9 findingsThe biggest waves are getting bigger fastest
All three council voices converged on revision_needed: the 2024 ESA/satellite-altimetry synthesis shows extreme Hs trends are spatially heterogeneous (declining or flat in the North Atlantic and North Indian Ocean, ice-retreat-driven in the Arctic), while the 2022–2024 multi-mission altimeter calibration studies reveal that 99th-percentile trend estimates...
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curated: forming→ live:revision neededJun 3, 2026 · 9 findingsClimate is moving people faster than the UN expected
The council unanimously finds the hypothesis requires revision: no 2024–2025 empirical study confirms the specific '>2× AR6 SSP2-4.5 central estimate' migration slope across 3+ regions, and as the Skeptic notes, AR6 already models compound drought–agricultural interactions under SSP2-4.5, undermining the premise that this pathway is omitted. Compounding t...
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curated: forming→ live:revision neededJun 3, 2026 · 9 findingsDrought comes before the war
The council collectively finds that while the directional causal mechanism (drought preceding conflict) retains some support, the hypothesis as stated is overspecified and empirically fragile: the Skeptic cites a 2024 reanalysis finding the 6-18 month lag is statistically unstable once governance and political-economy confounders are controlled, the Fact-...
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curated: forming→ live:revision neededJun 3, 2026 · 9 findingsClean energy is saving lives in real time
The council collectively finds that while the energy-transition → air-quality → mortality pathway is mechanistically supported, the hypothesis as calibrated cannot be validated: model-projected benefits (2030–2050 horizons) dominate the literature rather than observed 24-month empirical data (Princeton/One Earth 2025), GBD PM2.5 mortality coefficients car...
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curated: monitoring→ live:revision neededJun 3, 2026 · 9 findingsFish are heading to the poles, fast
The council collectively finds that while observed poleward shift rates may exceed modeled predictions directionally, the hypothesis requires substantive revision on two critical points: Chaikin et al. (Nature Ecology & Evolution, 2024) demonstrates that fast-shifting species lose up to 50% abundance, invalidating the assumption that sub-polar fisheries a...
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curated: monitoring→ live:revision neededJun 3, 2026 · 9 findingsDrought is breaking hydropower's promise
The council collectively finds the hypothesis requires significant revision on two fronts: first, the causal chain linking drought to fossil-backstop additions is undermined by Brazil's August 2025 data showing wind and solar—not fossil capacity—absorbing over one-third of generation as hydro dips, while Pacific NW shortfalls (~13%, per EIA 2024 Short-Ter...
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curated: monitoring→ live:revision neededJun 3, 2026 · 9 findingsAtmospheric rivers are breaking the rulebook
The council collectively finds that the hypothesis's central claim of empirically observed >10%/°C SST scaling is undermined by Da Silva & Haerter (Nature Geoscience, 2025), which demonstrates that apparent super-Clausius–Clapeyron scaling at extreme quantiles is largely explained by a statistical shift from stratiform to convective rain-type composition ...
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curated: monitoring→ live:revision neededJun 3, 2026 · 9 findingsAntarctica is overshooting the projections
All three council voices independently identified a critical metric/threshold mismatch: the hypothesis states Antarctic-specific contribution rates but applies thresholds (3.0–5.0 mm/yr) that correspond to total global mean sea-level rise, while IMBIE/ESA/NASA Climate Indicators (updated through 2024–2025) confirm the Antarctic sheet's actual observed con...
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curated: forming→ live:revision neededJun 3, 2026 · 9 findingsTwitter beats NOAA to the heat dome
All three council voices independently concluded revision is needed: NOAA HeatRisk (2024) and NWS operational criteria already provide 3–7+ day formal heat forecasts, collapsing the hypothesis's claimed social-signal advantage, while the 2025 peer-reviewed literature (e.g., 'Urban cities heatwaves vulnerability and societal responses') confirms social med...
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curated: forming→ live:revision neededJun 3, 2026 · 9 findingsThe loudest climate pledges deliver the least
The council collectively finds that the hypothesis requires material revision before it can be considered testable or policy-relevant: UNEP's 2025 Emissions Gap Report and the UNFCCC 2025 NDC Synthesis Report (FCCC/PA/CMA/2025/8) both undermine the operationalization of the ρ < −0.25 threshold—due to shifting baselines, near-universal G20 implementation g...
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curated: monitoring→ live:revision neededJun 3, 2026 · 7 findingsClimate science cites at internet speed now
The council collectively found that the hypothesis conflates preprint-to-publication lag with first peer-reviewed citation lag, and no domain-specific climate evidence supports the claimed sub-18-month citation threshold or the alleged 36–48 month historical baseline; CrossRef-wide data through 2024 (State of Papers, Retractions, and Preprints, 2025) show...
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curated: forming→ live:revision neededJun 3, 2026 · 9 findingsCCS sites tremble before they leak
The council collectively finds the hypothesis mechanistically plausible but empirically unsupported at the claimed scale: the Sleipner 2024 benchmark dataset documents plume migration without seismic precursors, sites such as In Salah, Otway, and Lacq show no detectable seismicity at all, and the 2024 MIT uncertainty-quantification work demonstrates that ...